A Deeper Look at Troy School District’s Enrollment Numbers

<Editor’s note: data and some content are republished with minor edits from a series of Facebook posts recently written by a community member with his permission>

For decades, the Troy School District (TSD) has been a beacon of educational excellence in Michigan, drawing families who seek the best opportunities for their children. However, a closer look at recent enrollment data reveals a concerning trend that poses a clear and present danger to the district’s future. While a decline in the number of school-aged children is often cited as the primary cause, the data tells a more complex story of policy choices and, most critically, a shrinking share of its own resident students.

An analysis of district data from the 2011-12 through 2023-24 school years, sourced from MISchoolData, paints a clear picture. While total enrollment has seen fluctuations, the underlying components of this number reveal the real challenges. To truly understand the enrollment issue, we need to look beyond the top-line number and examine three distinct factors: regional demographics, district policy, and resident choice.

1. The Demographic Headwind

It is true that TSD, like many mature suburban districts, is facing a projected drop in the raw number of school-age children within its boundaries. This forecast, noted by a TSD-commissioned report by Plante Moran, is a legitimate headwind and the reason most commonly given for enrollment decline. While this is an important factor, focusing on it alone obscures two other critical, and more controllable, parts of the equation.

2. A Policy Choice: The Reduction of “Import” Students

For years, TSD supplemented its enrollment by accepting “Schools of Choice” students—residents of other districts who chose to attend Troy schools. The provided data shows that in the 2018-19 school year, these students, or “imports,” peaked at 1,495. However, by 2023-24, that number had been reduced to 1,056. This reduction is not an accident; it is a policy choice. While there may be valid reasons for this decision, it has directly contributed to a lower overall student count, placing more pressure on retaining resident students.

3. The Core Challenge: A Declining “Market Share”

The most significant and alarming trend is the district’s declining “market share” among students living within its own boundaries. In 2011-12, 92.2% of school-aged children living in Troy attended TSD public schools. By 2023-24, that figure had fallen to 88.0%. This means a growing number of TSD residents are “exporting” their children to other public districts or choosing other educational paths.

The picture becomes even sharper when we incorporate private school data. According to the latest American Community Survey (ACS), approximately 1,000 TSD-resident students attend private schools, a 23% increase from the 812 who did so in 2014-15 (Table S1401). When these students are included in the total pool of resident children, TSD’s market share falls from 84.9% in 2014-15 to just 81.7% today.

This may not sound like a dramatic drop, but the numbers are stark. That 3.2% difference in market share represents approximately 445 students given the estimated number of TSD resdient students.

The Financial and Operational Fallout

The loss of 445 students has severe financial consequences for the district. Based on the state’s per-pupil foundation allowance of $10,394 for 2024-25, this translates to a revenue loss of $4.6 million for the 2024-25 general fund operating budget, or around 2.3% of the total. When you factor in other categorical grants also awarded on a per-pupil basis, the actual financial hit is even higher.

This financial strain directly threatens the quality of education. A significant portion of a school district’s budget consists of fixed costs, such as maintaining its numerous school buildings. As enrollment declines, those fixed costs are spread across fewer students, leaving less money for programming, arts, technology, and staff. A separate analysis suggests that an enrollment of 12,000-13,000 students is the “sweet spot” for TSD to operate its current number of schools efficiently. Falling below this threshold will inevitably force difficult conversations about program cuts or even consolidations.

A Path Forward: From Guesswork to Strategy

If declining enrollment is the disease, then stabilizing it must be the cure. This should be a top strategic priority for the district and incorporated into TSD’s next strategic plan. The trend is not irreversible, but reversing it requires a proactive approach rooted in data.

The district can no longer afford to guess why families are choosing other options. It is time to implement a robust system for understanding family decision-making. This should include annual family satisfaction surveys to gauge the current climate, as well as detailed family exit surveys for every family that leaves the district. Supplementing this quantitative data with qualitative focus groups can provide deeper insights into the “why” behind the numbers.

Districts that have faced similar challenges have successfully used this model to inform targeted outreach and retention strategies, ultimately winning back market share. By truly listening to its community, the Troy School District can identify areas for improvement, better communicate its strengths, and ensure it remains the first choice for families for generations to come. The time to act is now.